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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
September 4, 2026

International Trade and Trade Balance – July 2026

South Africa’s latest trade figures reveal a mixed economic picture: although the country recorded a R20.1 billion trade surplus in July 2026, export growth continues to rely heavily on raw materials such as metals, gold, and minerals, while imports remain concentrated in higher-value products including vehicles, chemicals, and machinery. Exports rose 8.3% over the first seven months of the year, outpacing the 6.0% increase in imports and highlighting subdued domestic demand among households and businesses. However, with higher fuel prices, imported inflation, and a potentially tighter monetary policy, including another expected interest-rate increase, economic activity and demand could weaken further in the months ahead. The full report examines what these trends mean for South Africa’s trade performance, domestic consumption, and growth prospects for the remainder of 2026.

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced goods and services in the global market. The country predominantly exports raw materials, including base metals, gold, other precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products such as vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In July 2026, South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.1 billion, indicating that exports once again exceeded imports. Over the last seven months ending July 2026, exports have grown by 8.3% compared to the same period in 2025, from R1.175 billion in 2025 to R1.272 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, imports increased by 6.0%, from R1.075 billion in 2025 to R1.1140 billion in July 2026. This reflects the relatively low level of domestic demand among South African businesses and consumers at this stage.

Looking ahead, demand is expected to grow slowly in the latter stages of 2026 amid higher fuel prices and a more restrictive monetary policy stance, driven by imported inflationary pressures. Interest rates are expected to increase by another 25 basis points in September, further reducing domestic demand in the coming months.

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Consumer Inflation – August 2026

South Africa’s August 2026 inflation data present a complex outlook: headline CPI rose to 4.4%, remaining below market expectations yet above the upper limit of the inflation target range, while services inflation continued to climb, and fuel and transport costs exerted further pressure on households and businesses. With the economy contracting, international oil prices rising and global uncertainties, including Middle East tensions and tariff disputes, continuing to weigh on the rand and domestic prices, attention is now focused on the South African Reserve Bank’s next interest-rate decision. Read the full report for an analysis of the factors driving inflation, the risks facing the economy and what the latest developments could mean for consumers, businesses and monetary policy in the months ahead.

Own Goal at the Polls: What the ANC’s Nomination Debacle Means for Key Municipalities

The recent Electoral Court ruling dismissing the ANC’s bid to compel the IEC to accept late candidate submissions is a significant event with profound implications for the upcoming 4 November 2026 local government elections.

A view on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales performance – July 2026 Data

South Africa’s retail sector delivered a striking surprise in July 2026, with sales climbing 3.4% against market expectations of a 3.0% contraction, but the story beneath that headline number is far more nuanced than it first appears. This report unpacks the fragile balancing act facing local households: inflation easing to 4.3% yet still stubbornly above the SARB’s new 2–4% target band, administered prices and utility costs rising by more than 4.0%, wage growth lagging behind severe fuel shocks, and the lingering effect of May’s 25-basis-point rate hike prompted by inflationary pressures well beyond Pretoria’s control. We examine why business confidence firmed (SACCI up from 123.5 to 125.4) while consumer sentiment slumped sharply (FNB/BER down from -7 to -19), which categories, from “other retailers” to general dealers and household goods, actually carried the growth, and what the extension of AGOA to end-2027 means now that fresh visa tensions between Washington and Pretoria have placed South Africa’s eligibility squarely under the microscope. Read the full report to understand whether this recovery has the legs to survive higher fuel prices, a possible second rate increase, and a second-quarter contraction in economic activity — or whether July’s good news was simply borrowed from the easing cycle of 2024/25.

Gross Operating Surplus: A View on Company Profits 2026Q2

South Africa’s business profitability showed surprising resilience in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing inflation despite a 0.2% contraction in economic activity, higher oil and import prices, trade tariffs, and ongoing diplomatic tensions. While overall profit growth slowed from the first quarter, several sectors, including transport and logistics, mining, electricity and utilities, personal services, and trade, recorded substantial gains, offering important clues about where the economy’s strongest opportunities may lie. This report examines the forces shaping Gross Operating Surplus across key industries, explains the mounting pressures on company performance, and considers whether easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and greater policy certainty could unlock stronger economic activity, employment, and investment in the months and years ahead.

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for August 2026

South Africa’s international liquidity position strengthened in August 2026, with net gold and foreign exchange reserves rising by USD 1,9 billion as the rand gained nearly 30c against the US dollar and the gold price climbed to USD 4 460/oz, some 30% higher than a year earlier. Yet beneath these encouraging headline figures lies a far more complex picture: the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated, while shifting US tariff measures, a one-year AGOA extension and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady all point to continued volatility for the rand. With the South African Reserve Bank’s third-quarter interest rate decisions hanging in the balance, this report unpacks what these commodity and currency movements mean for inflation, the mining sector and South Africa’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year.