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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
February 5, 2025

International Trade and Trade Balance

South Africa recorded a trade balance surplus of R15.46 billion in December 2024, where exports exceeded imports. While annual figures showed declines for both, there is optimism for 2025 as lower interest rates and easing infrastructure bottlenecks could enhance trade activity and support economic growth.
International Trade and Trade Balance graph, Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
International Trade and Trade Balance table, Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services against the demand for domestically manufactured products in global markets. The country mainly exports raw materials, such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added goods like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In December 2024, South Africa achieved a trade balance surplus of R15.46 billion, indicating that exports exceeded imports. However, on an annual basis, both exports and imports declined, with exports contracting by 1.4% and imports dropping by 6.5%. The decrease in imports from November suggests subdued demand after Black Friday purchases, while exports also saw a notable reduction during this period.

Compared to the same months in 2023, the value of exports and imports for November and December 2024 was lower, despite lower interest rates and a similar Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Moving forward, there is hope that the South African economy will build on the confidence gained in 2024, particularly with lower interest rates and a reduction in infrastructure bottlenecks affecting international trade at port and rail facilities.

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More Coverage

The Fuel Shock Dilemma: Why the SARB’s Inflation Medicine May Hurt a Fragile Economy

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The Core Dilemma: Demand vs. Supply and Interest Rates

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A view on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales performance – March 2026 Data

Amid a turbulent economic backdrop, South Africa’s retail sales surged by an unexpected 2.6% in March 2026, outpacing forecasts and signalling a fragile yet persistent recovery in the consumer market. While interest rate cuts have bolstered household spending, challenges such as rising inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions loom large. Despite these hurdles, sectors like “other retailers” and general dealers have notably contributed to this growth spurt, raising questions about the sustainability of this recovery. With business and consumer confidence indices displaying mixed signals, the future of South Africa’s retail strength hinges on international relations, fuel costs, and policy decisions. Explore the dynamics and implications of these developments in our detailed report.

Consumer Inflation Rate – 2026

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The SARB’s High-Stakes Tightrope: Balancing an Inflation Breach Against a Jobless Crisis

Next week’s SARB decision could define South Africa’s economic trajectory: facing an external oil shock and runaway electricity tariffs that threaten to push April inflation past the central bank’s 4.0% ceiling, policymakers must weigh a technical inflation breach against a staggering surge in unemployment and collapsing investment, a choice between credibility and survival. With joblessness spiking and GDP growth stagnant, aggressive rate hikes would risk choking off the private investment the country urgently needs, while inaction could dent the new inflation-targeting framework. Read the full report for a detailed breakdown of the shocks driving this dilemma, the likely “hold” outcome from the May 28 MPC meeting, and what it means for businesses, households, and markets.